Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Down in HIGHER volume - 0.3% (1057) down at close - Range 1,046.47 - 1,063.40

Today market fluctuated heavily based on ADP employment report - 258K loss compared to 210 expectation. Also chicago purchasing manufacturing index was released which is MUCH WORSE than expected. This is the main cause of market down.  But GDP was much better than expected. Stocks gaped up in the open.

I closed BIDU put that I bought for 7.60. Earlier I put limit order of 8.30. In the morning I changed it again. Incidentally today  high price on this put is 8.30

Current holdings:
LVS JAN 2010 $20 CALL - 
LVS stocks

Current Limit orders:
C - 4.15
GE - 16.10

LVS SPREAD - Net Debit=0.20
LJJ ASBuy to Open3
LJJ AOSell to Open3



Market trend: It seems to me -ve. But again it is mixed. 

Monday, September 28, 2009

IBD 20 Update

 RIMM & ESRX are removed from the list

Two energy companies are in - HAL & CHK

Indexes gain in soft trade - 1.8% up

Quote:
There are people who want to be every where at once, they get nowhere
- Carl Sandburg, author

Today I bought BIDU OCT $370 PUT  for 5.80. This is purely trade. I put sell limit price of 8.30.
I'm not feeling so good about this week. It would be interesting to see how market is going 10% unemployment rate.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Audit Integrity Announces Results of Corporate Bankruptcy Study; Identifies Companies Most Likely to Declare Bankruptcy

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS114031+16-Sep-2009+BW20090916


www.auditintegrity.com 

According to the above research:
today released the results of its bankruptcy model research and has identified 20 corporations, with $1 billion or more in market capitalization, that have the highest probability of declaring bankruptcy in the next twelve months.

Audit Integrity has identified the following companies that have the highest probability of declaring bankruptcy among publicly traded firms with more than $1 billion market capitalizations:

Some surprises to me

* Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
* Amkor Technology, Inc.
* AMR Corporation
* Apartment Investment and Management Co.
* CBS Corporation 
* Continental Airlines, Inc. 
* Federal-Mogul Corporation
* Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.
* Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.
* Las Vegas Sands Corp.
* Liberty Media Corporation (Capital)
* Macy's, Inc.
* Mylan Inc.
* Oshkosh Corporation
* Redwood Trust, Inc.
* Rite Aid Corporation
* Sirius XM Radio Inc.
* Sprint Nextel Corporation
* Textron Inc. 
* The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company

Down in mixed volume - Fear is coming in. Went down by 1%

General perception is down in short term but will be more than where we are now by the year end.

IBD: Market in confirmed uptrend

Today I opened
LVS - 18 - limit order kicked in - the one I placed 3 days ago. I did't go crazy. I bought few. 30% of my position
LVS - Jan 10, $19 call for 2.35.

My limit orders:
C - 4.15 - It is possible I may hit this tomorrow - 1/2 position
F - 6.75 - very unlikely

After market: RIMM disappointment - 11%. During day 3% down. So 14% for the day

Watching - GE

News:
LVS is one of the potential companies that can go bankrupt in coming 12 months which obviously makes me nervous.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2207101/analysis_affects_on_las_vegas_of_a.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS114031+16-Sep-2009+BW20090916

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Down in HIGHER volume - by 1% - LATE reversal - which is at 1060

One more day with NO positions in any account

Fed bullish words but market goes down in late reversal - why?
No explanation. No false predictions

Wisdom:
Aim for the moon, if you miss you may hit a star. - By Clement Stone

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Up in HIGH volume - By 0.7%

One more day with out positions

LVS/F/GE all of them are up.

I set limit order on C for 4.15

Monday, September 21, 2009

Want better results? Follow a routine

IBD - Page - B1 - Making money
Under Investor's corner

Summary:
You can't expect to be good at something as difficult as stock investing by just winging it.

Today decliners top advancers by a margin of 2 to 1

IBD 20 LIST AS OF TODAY

List by rank - Watch highlighted - surprises





Rank
Name
Symbol
Last price
Change




1
Apple Inc.
AAPL
184.02
-1




2
The TJX Companies, Inc.
TJX
38.08
0.04




3
Research In Motion Limited (USA)
RIMM
84.16
0.54




4
VMware, Inc.
VMW
40.16
-0.61




5
MasterCard Incorporated
MA
222.62
-0.95




6
Google Inc.
GOOG
497
5.54




7
Kohl's Corporation
KSS
55.54
0.53




8
The Gap Inc.
GPS
22.14
0.12




9
AFLAC Incorporated
AFL
42.28
-0.47




10
Express Scripts, Inc.
ESRX
79.26
0.33




11
Starbucks Corporation
SBUX
20.67
-0.09




12
McKesson Corporation
MCK
59.33
0.87




13
eBay Inc.
EBAY
24.15
-0.19




14
Royal Bank of Canada (USA)
RY
52.82
-0.91




15
Simon Property Group, Inc
SPG
71.79
-2.18




16
National-Oilwell Varco, Inc.
NOV
43.05
-0.63




17
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
GS
182.39
-0.79




18
EMC Corporation
EMC
16.85
-0.15




19
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
APC
62.59
-0.55




20
AAR Corp.
AIR
18.61
0.16

Stocks closed mixed in LOWER volume

After longtime I'm without any positions today.

Limit Orders:
F - 6.75
LVS - 18 - once this order is in I would like to sell oct 18 calls which is demanding very good premium.

Watching following stocks:

OMTR (21.70) - Today I wanted to buy but its option volume is meager. Down by 1% by 3 times avg volume.
Is adobe paying too much?. Adobe paying $21.50 cash. I'll drop this from my watch list.

LVS - down  by 2% with 41 mil volume. This option action continued to be bullish.
PUT/CALL = 0.48, 30 day avg=0.53

F - down by 1.6% by 52 mil half of avg volume. Option action today is NOT good though = 2.07
where as 30 day is 0.78

Other News:
IBM>HPQ>DELL ?

  • Dell announced to buy Perot System corp (PER) for >65% premium. PER up by 65% today. Again many people are not happy with this premium and not bullish on dell at all.
  • Gold stocks are down - check our stock IAG - down from 15.65 to 14. Today it is down by 5% on more than 3 times avg volume.


MONDAY - IBD BIG CAP 20:  Watch this as part of next post

Friday, September 18, 2009

Stocks edged up in high volume - options expiration day - Quadruple Witching

Closed: ATI for 0.55. Initially bought for 2.05 which is 1.50/contract loss.
I let LVS/MSFT get exercised.
 LVS (18.86) - SEP 14 COVERED CALL, MSFT(25.26) - SEP 24 COVERED CALL
-----------------------------
LVS - it is just down 0.6% with less volume which is very good. 39 mil vs 52 mil avg.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

S&P down by 0.3% - in lower volume (?)

IBD status: Same as yesterday

Closed AXP OCT 36 PUTS for 2.30 (I opened this position yesterday) -> 0.20 profit

Other Observations:
STEC - down by 17% on more than 14 times avg volume - Oracle affect & on worries about competition in the enterprise solid state drive (SSD) market
LVS - up by 2%.
ORCL - reported earnings - down by 3% on more 3 times avg volume -company surprised investors withdisappointing sales.





Watching:
OMTR - Adobe announced to buy this for 1.8 bil. Potential bidders could be Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, Cisco Systems Inc, SAP or Salesforce.com Inc, analysts said.


VCLK - went by 10% after OMTR news. (10.96 to 12.39)


GE -(16.66) down by 1.5% by 3 times avg volume. Up at one point. The volume is VERY HEAVY in the past 7 sessions.

F - 6.92 - down by 3% - only problem is down by double volume

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Up in increase volume - 1.5%

Yesterday I closed AXP OCT 30 puts for 0.65. Took lose of 0.65/contract.
Today I closed LVS OCT 15 PUT foor 0.50. Took lose of 0.95/contract
Holding: ATI put which I may close tomorrow.

All of the above are BAD bets.

Today I bought AXP OCT 36 PUT  for 2.10.

Other thoughts:
I will let LVS/MSFT covered calls to be exercised.
LVS - went up 7% more yesterday. Today it went up by 5% at one time but it come down by 5% by close
GE - one more star. huge volume. Huge up in this week so far
ATI - 35.67 which went up by 7 points in the last 10 days.
AMZN - up by 8% on upgrade which is at 90

Where is market going from here - I'm clearly wrong in the past 1 wk. I'm not comfortable to buy any thing here.

IBD: Market in confirmed uptrend.

Monday, September 14, 2009

.NET - Handling multiple results from a stored proc in LINQ-SQL

Handling multiple results from stored procedure in LINQ TO SQL

This morning Raj forwarded me a link written by Kulakarni. But I'm inclusing different which essentially explains technique
http://blogs.msdn.com/swiss_dpe_team/archive/2008/02/04/linq-to-sql-returning-multiple-result-sets.aspx
http://blogs.msdn.com/dditweb/archive/2008/05/06/linq-to-sql-and-multiple-result-sets-in-stored-procedures.aspx

Here is the summary:

  • Currently LINQ -SQL doesn't support multiple results. The above articles shows work around which I think simple to implement
  • Make sure you new up the list when you get each result set from the IMultipleResult result. Otherwise you are going to loose the data in the next around for example in UI screen or 2nd iteration in for--each.
  • You could also implement ISingleResult generic interfaces on your result to avoid above issue.
That is all I see so far.

Market - Soft volume / 0.6% up / Down in the morning/closed +ve at EOD

Holdings: puts: AXP/ATI/LVS - All are Oct
LVS/MSFT Covered calls

AXP  - down.
ATI - bullish action
The action on the market is bullish from the time I bought PUTs. Obviously this is not working for me.

I was on the road this weekend. I'll cover that today

LVS(18.06) - monster rally - Today it went up again by 8% on Bank of america upgrade with more than average volume. Obviously my bet is wrong. I'm still holding it.
As far as Sept 14 covered call, we can be sure (98%), it will be exercised. Even though we have good amount data coming up in this week. It is very unlikely it falls below 14 by this friday based on the action so far.
This demonstrates weakness of Covered call strategy. In this trade I would have made $4/stock if I didn't sell covered call as my avg price is around 14.05.
MSFT - I sold Sept 24 calls. There is possibilty it could hover around 24. I need to watch.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Up by mixed volume - s&p by 0.8%

Except ATI both AXP/LVS up by more than 2%.

IBD: Market in confirmed uptrend. That is green signal.

Tomorrow weekly jobs report is something to watch.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Up in higher volume - S&P up by 0.9%. More merger news

Currently I hold 3 position and all of them are SEP puts (AXP/ATI/LVS). Down in all 3 position. Surprisingly ATI up by 7% . LVS up heavily at one time. It closed at half. Volume is heavy in the morning. This one really rocketing. I can't believe this. AXP also went up 2%. I need to watch out.

IBD: Uptrend under pressure

This is the reason ATI went up -
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: ATI) announced that it has signed a ten-year sourcing agreement with Rolls-Royce plc for the supply of nickel-based superalloy disc-quality products for commercial jet engine applications. The agreement covers products sold by ATI Allvac, an ATI operating company, to the customer’s first tier suppliers (forgers). Potential revenue is estimated to be between $750 million and $1 billion.


Watches: PCLN is up by 4 points. Also look at IAG. Range 13.37 - 14.87

Look at BIDU -

Market Randomness at best in short term -

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Low volume day - typical to long weekend. S&P by 1.3% to 1016. Volume stil there on some stocks.

Positions: Sept 4th
Open:

  • Bought ATI OCT 29 PUTS for 2.05 - currently ATI @29.78 (up 2% today)
  • Bought  LVS OCT 15 PUT for 1.45 - currently LVS @15.51 up by 8.23%
Closed: 
  • Sold MSFT OCT 17 Calls @1.15 (20 cents profit - opened this position on Sept 1st)
IBD: Uptrend under pressure
News: 
  • Job losses for Aug -> 216K, Unemployment rate=9.7%. Productivity increases.
Watches/Thoughts:
  • As trading progressing I was thinking market may go up early but market will pull back at end of the session. But actually it didn't. It closed at high.
  • LVS galloped 8% with more than avg volume on low volume day. Closed at its high.That tells some thing. Then why did I buy puts?. Next week I'm expecting at least  little pull back in the short term.
  • MSFT went up by 2%. Again I closed the position little early.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

S&P Up by 0.9% - Low volume day -

Positions:
Open: buy to open - AXP OCT 30 PUTS - $1.30 (bought in the last 2 min of market close)
IBD: Uptrend under pressure

Imp News: Tomorrow Aug job loss expectation: 225K. Not expecting much action tomorrow as we are entering long weekend. If job losses more than 300K then you may see some action.

What’s happening in gold? (From IBD) Some market watchers see the gold group as a gauge of currency fears. They’ve been predicting for months that wild U.S. government spending and borrowing will eventually trash the U.S. dollar, boosting the precious metal.

Thoughts:

  • Wanted to buy RIMM PUTS (it went up 2 points). 
  • Also I have been watching gold related stock IAG. Yesterday and today it went up around 25%. Wanted to buy PUTS yesterday but didn't. Wanted today but didn't. Seems to be a right decision. Tomorrow if job losses more than expected, then these gold stocks should go down atleast in short term.
  • LVS - Wanted to buy PUTS - it went up again by 80 cents to 14.48 at one time. It settled at 13.93.


NFLX - added to watch list. Stock tumbled on you tube rentals talk. There is speculation it may be takeover target...Possibly by Mr Softy.

F: went up by 6% moodys credit upgrade


Market stats: from TRADEKING (S&P, NASDAQ)
  

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

S&P down by 0.33%. Low Volume day

Closed: I closed LVS calls position for 20 cents profit
Open: I sold calls LVS 14 Sept calls for 0.90
IBD: Market uptrend under pressure

------------ China affect on US market------------
Yesterday I heard chartologist from CNBC giving some correlation between china market and US market (? one way). Don't hold me on these numbers. He was saying earlier it used to be 40% that is before 2008. From 2008 it is increased to 60%(?). That means  if china goes down  there is 60% chance, we will go down.

ALL ABOUT - LVS
General Information:

  • LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP RANK WITHIN THE LEISURE-GAMING/EQUIP GROUP (34 STOCKS)
  • LVS - Services Sector, Casino/Gaming Industry or group. Currently this industry ranked at 11 based on IBD group ranking.
  • LVS - my take is currently purely technical and gut feeling. I see lot of call action or more specifically I see 
  • PUT/CALL (30 day avg) = 0.50
  • PUT/CALL (1 day avg) = 0.95 (which is understandable)
  • Up/Down Volume = 1.5 - more up days than down days in last 50 days - GOOD
  • Volatility = 84% (Great for covered call)
  • Here is where things become contradictory - In general we are not supposed buy stocks with bad fundamentals (main component is earnings) - EPS = -0.88, P/E = -15.28 (-ve ??)
  • Debt/Equity = 234% - BIG RED.



  • IBD SmartSelect Ratings


RatingChecklist
Composite Rating61Fail
EPS Rating2Fail
RS Rating97Pass
Group RS RatingA+Pass
SMR RatingCNeutral
Acc/Dis RatingAPass

See Acc/Dis rating - this supports our put/call ratio.

I have to stop here - more info on this stock tomorrow.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Heavy Volume - 2.21% S&P down

COM: Bearish.
Closed Positions: PCLN/AXP/ATI puts
Open Positinon: Yesterday Bought LVS @14.08 in HSA. I want to sell Sep 14 calls. I put Limit order @1.30.
Today I bought MSFT OCT 24 calls @0.97, LVS Oct 13 call @1.85 in my R-IRA

LVS - is up by 18 cents in the morning but down by 81 cents (5.68%)

Today I closed my PCLN/AXP puts positions. Took 50 cents on  PCLN, 65 cents loss on these positions.
Yesterday I closed ATI puts positin and took 15 cents loss.

Again and again, I'm very eager to take profits but hesitate to sell when losses are coming.
 PCLN down by $4.77.
Why did I sell? - Market trend showing clearly in down word direction. B'coz I'm not sure. Tomorrow if ADP numbers are good, market MAY not go up much but it could go up. These puts are expiring in 18 days.